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Interim Iraq: Handover or “Hot Potato”

Whatever the wisdom of the Iraq War, most agree there is too much at stake to allow a “weak or failed” state – but at what cost?

June 18, 2004

On June 30, 2004 the Bush Administration will pass the responsibility for Iraq's future back into the hands of Iraqis and the United Nation while the U.S. stands guard. Questions abound as to whether this is the way to build a nation, execute an exit strategy, democratize the Middle East, or win a war on terror. Is Iraq ready to govern itself?

U.N. Resolution 1564 passed unanimously on June 8, officially returning sovereignty to Iraq on June 30 - although U.S. and Coalition troops will remain in Iraq for at least two more years to ensure security. Quietly, many infrastructure and humanitarian projects are being completed daily - fear of sabotage keeps them from being publicized. What gains have been made so far? What problems persist? Who will keep progress on track? What happens if Iraq becomes a "failed state"?

  • U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has overseen the rehabilitation of 2,300 schools; administered 30 million doses of vaccines to children and pregnant women; rebuilt bridges, airports, and seaports; restored sewage and water treatment plants; improved the national electricity grid - at one point topping prewar levels - and begun to recreate and manage the former marshlands.

  • 20-25% of funding for Iraq redevelopment projects is now being siphoned off to pay for the costs of security at the development sites.

  • Army Maj. Gen. Paul D. Eaton spent a year assembling and training 200,000 Iraqi army, police and civil defense troops. Reflecting, Eaton noted, "It hasn't gone well. We've had almost a year of no progress."

  • As many as 1,400 POWs will be released to Iraqi custody. Although Saddam Hussein is classified as a POW, it isn't certain whether he will remain in U.S. custody.

In 2003, the USAID estimated the cost of war would be $1.7 billion. As of June, 2004 the war and reconstruction expenses to U.S. taxpayer passed the $150 billion mark. The World Bank will contribute an estimated $38 billion to the reconstruction effort. Will other countries join in the reconstruction effort - as encouraged by the U.N. - supplying funds and expertise? What about troops to relieve our own? Beyond money, what has the war and occupation cost the U.S. in the eyes of the world?

  • According to those polled, world opinion of the U.S. has cooled, with a growing percentage of Muslims seeing a serious threat to Islam - as much as 53% in generally U.S. favorable Kuwait.

  • A major victim of the war has been the U.N. - with over half of the 44 countries polled believing the Iraq conflict showed the U.N. was "not so important anymore."

Political pundits and editorial writers have all taken a stab at the extreme potentials for democracy and collapse in Iraq. Many note that ambiguities in the U.N. resolution and a shaky interim constitution that may amount to a little more than a "gentlemen's agreement" after the handover might open the door for historic rifts between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds to once again cause internal crisis. How will the outcome of Iraq determine U.S. policy for intervention in the future? Are we any safer?

  • The State Department admitted in early June that it was wrong in reporting a decline in worldwide terrorism last year - a finding earlier used by the Bush Administration as evidence of its success on in the "war on terror."

What are the agreements between the U.S. and Iraq? What does U.N. Resolution 1564 specify regarding the end of Iraq occupation? If military personnel cannot be subject to Iraq laws where do private contractors fit in? What are the legal consequences of not releasing Saddam Hussein to Iraqi custody? How will the Iraqi government fare post handover? Will the handover reduce violence in Iraq? How will the daily security of the Iraqi people be assured? What role will the U.N. take on in the reconstruction? What roles will Iraqi women play in reconstruction and creation of democracy? How much money has the U.S. committed for continuing troop support and reconstruction? Are any other countries helping so far? As some of our allies pull out of Iraq will be able to work with fewer coalition supporters? Beyond troops, what has the U.S. been setting up for handover and how will that be sustained? What will it really take for Iraq to become a democracy? How will what happens in Iraq after June 30 affect the way the U.S. intervenes in the future?


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