The Coming Nine Billion

The Presidential race is entering its final phase, and the campaigns have focused more on personality and style than on substantial issues. Environmental and energy concerns have been largely absent, aside from a bruising debate about oil drilling. And we continue to sidetrack any meaningful discussion of world population growth, even though it impacts heavily on the major challenges identified by most American voters: the economy, energy prices, global warming, biodiversity loss, sprawl and the high cost of food.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s online world population counter shows a global count of over 6.7 billion people. Refresh your browser, and within seconds another 50 people are added. World population is expected to exceed 9.2 billion by 2050, according to the United Nations. The agency points out that the increase alone is equivalent to the total size of the world population in 1950.

In the U.S., population stands at more than 305 million and is climbing fast. According to the Pew Research Center, if current trends continue the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050. The U.S. is the only major industrial nation that is experiencing steeply escalating population growth.

Global Footprint describes this level of projected population growth as “twice what the Earth can sustain.” It continues:

This level of consumption is physically impossible. Our accumulated ecological debt would lead to ecosystem collapses around the world – before even current school children move into retirement.

Many of the biggest environmental issues identified in recent years—loss of open space and farm land, sprawl, biodiversity challenges, air and water pollution—can be traced to escalating human numbers. Population growth also compromises the fuel-efficiency and conservation gains we’ve made in recent years. For instance, tailpipe emissions have been reduced, but more cars on the highway means more vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and more fossil fuel use.

Perhaps we shunt the population issue aside because we don’t think it’s in our power to affect it. A recent comprehensive survey on U.S. attitudes towards population, conducted by the Population Media Center, found that opinions vary significantly by age and income:
• Sixty-three percent of those earning $20,000–$29,000 per year believe that, at the current rate of [population] growth, there will not be enough resources for today’s children. Only 38% of those earning more than $75,000 held that opinion.
• 60 percent of 18–24-year-olds understand that there is a strong link between a growing global population and climate change, compared with only 40 percent of people over the age of 65.
• Some 60% of 18-24-year-olds see population growth as a major factor in climate change, but only 35% believe that having fewer children will help protect the environment. Only 42% understand that limiting family size will help stabilize population numbers.

Because people have limited (and sometimes wrong) information on population, the result is a distorted picture. The impressive progress made in reducing birth rates has been interpreted by many journalists as a new crisis, “the birth dearth.” Although it is true that some parts of the world (especially Western Europe) are experiencing low birth rates, world population overall continues to grow inexorably.

How can we educate people about the proven impact of population growth on climate change, energy and natural resources? What can we do to promote sustainability in the countries with the highest birth rates? What are the main factors in population growth?