Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in Mumbai today for her first visit to India since the Obama Administration took office. At the top of the agenda is the U.S./India civil nuclear deal, passed last year when Bush was President, with Clinton, Obama and Biden all voting for it. This deal allowed India to acquire nuclear material without signing the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Will the U.S./India civil nuclear deal carry forward in the Obama Administration, which is committed to strengthening the NPT?
India is not a signatory to the NPT but has developed and possesses nuclear weapons. Indian leaders are worried about Obama’s nonproliferation drive and fear that Obama will push for India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and try to get India into the nonproliferation net. Indeed India, Pakistan and Israel cause global concern because they are not NPT signatories, do possess nuclear weapons and may try to make more.
During a recent summit, G-8 leaders decided to curb the transfer of some sensitive nuclear technology to non-NPT signatory nations. India was quick to respond that it is not concerned about the G-8’s decision to ban the sale of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology. The G-8 countries were members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that gave India clearance to purchase nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel in exchange for civil nuclear cooperation in Vienna last September. India confirmed this week that France and Russia (both NSG member states) do not feel India is affected by the G-8 decision and both countries will continue to negotiate and sell nuclear materials to India for nuclear power.
Clinton’s visit will also include an effort to lock in two important contracts (defense and nuclear energy plants) for U.S. businesses which could yield as much as $20 billion. U.S. businesses have contracted to build 2 nuclear power plants in India, a deal made possible by the U.S./India civil nuclear deal. Clinton will be scouting locations.
Will the U.S./Indian civil nuclear agreement be the same under Obama as under Bush? Will the U.S. push India to join the nonproliferation community and sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty? If India refuses to allow for greater oversight of its nuclear weapons program, how will this affect Obama's nonproliferation goals? Is the U.S. conducting nuclear business with India undermining Obama's stated goal to strengthen the NPT?
