U.S. can curb global warming and lower energy costs

With the right policies in place, the United States could dramatically cut the heat-trapping emissions that cause global warming and, at the same time, lower energy costs in every region of the country, according to the findings of a two-year, peer-reviewed study by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). "Climate 2030: A National Blueprint for a Clean Energy Economy" used a modified version of the Department of Energy's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

The study concluded:

• United States could meet an emissions-reduction cap of 26% below 2005 levels by 2020 and 56% below 2005 levels by 2030.
• The average U.S. household would realize net savings of $300 in 2020 and $900 in 2030, while businesses collectively would see net savings of $35 billion in 2020 and nearly $130 billion in 2030.
• Collectively, households and businesses would see net savings of $255 billion in 2030.

How would it work? Implementing a cap on emissions with a suite of energy and transportation policies would trigger investments in efficiency improvements, renewable energy technologies, clean vehicles, better transportation choices, and low-carbon technologies and fuels. Household and business savings on transportation fuel costs and on electricity, natural gas and heating oil bills would more than offset those investments and any rise in energy prices.

UCS's blueprint found that a number of transportation policies would curb global warming emissions from cars and light-trucks to 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 -- and save motorists money. These policies would increase gasoline prices by no more than 24 cents per gallon over the next 20 years -- less than the amount they increased over the last month. That modest increase -- and the cost of investing in the cleaner vehicles, better transportation choices, and low-carbon fuels -- would be more than offset by savings.

The blueprint's transportation policies include vehicle carbon emission standards, which would lead to more efficient cars and trucks and improved vehicle air conditioning systems; and smart growth policies that would provide better transportation choices, reducing the number of miles motorists drive every year. Another blueprint policy, a low-carbon fuel standard, would require cleaner fuels to reduce oil consumption and strengthen U.S. energy security. All of these policies would contribute to overall transportation cost savings.

Congress is currently considering a bill sponsored by Reps. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) and Edward Markey (D-Mass.) that contains some of the elements of the UCS analysis, including an emissions cap, a national renewable electricity standard, and building and appliance energy efficiency standards. The provisions in "The American Clean Energy and Security Act" are not as strong as those in the UCS analysis, however, and it does not include some key transportation policies. As a result, the bill would not provide as many climate and economic benefits as the UCS's blueprint. The House Energy and Commerce Committee is expected to vote on the bill this week.

Currently 14 states, including California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, have adopted a single set of vehicle carbon emission standards. Nine other states are considering adopting similar standards. In a sign of significant progress, the Obama administration recently announced strong vehicle carbon emissions standards, consistent with state efforts.